Migration and water scarcity: a study from Politecnico di Milano

A study the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Politecnico di Milano, published in Nature Food and carried out together with the University of California, Berkeley, provides new evidence on the link between environmental stresses and migration processes. The research systematically analyzes the role of water scarcity in environmental migration, with a focus on Somalia, one of the countries most vulnerable to extreme hydroclimatic events.

The analysis, led by Professor Maria Cristina Rulli, coordinator of the Glob3ScienCE Lab (Global Studies on Sustainable Security in a Changing Environment), is based on a dataset of 40,000 environmental migration cases. The results show that water scarcity for agriculture, drought, and the resulting food insecurity directly affect farming and pastoral communities, which represent about 80% of the Somali population.

Based on field observations, interviews, operational data from first responders, and multivariate spatial analyses, the study systematically examined the interaction between hydroclimatic factors and migration dynamics. Extreme events, including droughts, floods, and storms, contributed to 98% of the 32.6 million internal migrations recorded globally in 2022.

In Somalia, where the economy largely depends on subsistence agropastoralism, the increasing frequency and intensity of these events puts strong pressure on rural livelihoods, fueling cycles of income loss, displacement, and dependence on humanitarian aid.

To strengthen its climate resilience, the country is working to improve the management of water resources and grazing lands. “The study highlights how these measures must be accompanied by community-based solutions, coordinated policies, and international cooperation to effectively address the growing impacts of global hydroclimatic changes on the most vulnerable populations.” Professor Maria Cristina Rulli, Climate and Hydrology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.